Jan Kavan is a very persuasive writer. he really should have been a lawyer with the ability to make the worst appear the better case. His defence of Vladimir Meciar ("Don't Cry for Meciar or Slovakia Yet!", February 25-March 2) is the best I have seen of this most interesting and potentially dangerous of Slovak politicians. Even so, it fails to convince. It gives no solid reason for regarding the man or his party with anything approaching complacency.

It may well be "unfair and unnecessarily provocative to label him as a national socialist, as many Czech influential journalists have begun to do". I will go further than Mr Kavan. It may be unfair to ascribe any fixed political principles to Mr Meciar. He has been a communist, a democrat and a nationalist - one after the other, or all perhaps at the same time. If Saddam Hussain had won the Gulf War, he might by now be a Muslim. No one knows what he will be this time next year.

Though questionable in a private individual, this fluidity of principle may work to the advantage of Slovakia and the whole Federation. If Mr Meciar does indeed only believe in himself, and can be trusted to do whatever is best for him, the apocalyptic warnings that now fill the Czech press can perhaps be dismissed. Consider:

Which is the most powerful state in Europe? The answer is Germany, exercising its power either alone or through the European Community. The Soviet Union is dead, and its largest successor, the Russian Federation, is too self-absorbed to possess or desire influence in central Europe. Any Slovak leader, therefore, who wants and easy life will need to consult German wishes.

What will these wishes be? The answer is continued economic reform and the maintenance of existing national boundaries. Both are the prerequisites for German economic supremacy in the region. Any Slovak politicians strong enough to ensure these in his own country will be able to rely on great masses of financial and political support.

It would shock me more than I can see if Mr Meciar were unaware of these facts. But all the indications are that he is aware of them, and is preparing the way for an accommodation with Germany if he comes to power. His stated views on privatisation and other economic reform is now far less socialistic than they often seem or used to be. He no longer opposes these things in themselves, but only the methods adopted by the present Government in Slovakia.

On the national question, as Mr Kavan says, "the HZDS [Movement for a Democratic Slovakia] expressed its support for a common state, whether a fairly loose confederation or a tighter federation".

Nevertheless, the future of central Europe is far too important for anyone to rely on this sort of argument. The fact is that, however intelligent or Machiavellian Mr Meciar may be - and neither I nor Mr Kavan can really be sure of this - he must carry a party with him that is filled with people who are on the whole neither intelligent nor Machiavellian. They dislike the Federation and they dislike economic reform. They also tend to distrust their leader.

Whether or not he was the "Doctor" [the alleged code name of Meciar, who some accuse of spying on Alexander Dubcek for the secret police], or did any of the awful things the Czech newspapers accuse him of having done, his political shifts since 1989 speak for themselves. If he wins the june elections, he may be able to hold his position as leader of the HZDS only by guessing the direction that its members wish to take and then running slightly ahead of them.

This would mean a unilateral declaration of independence in Bratislava, and - even with the best handling - a risk of disaster. There are so many minorities in Slovakia, and its borders are so disputed or resented by its neighbours, that the country and perhaps the whole region may plunge for a generation into political instability. All the promise of peaceful progress raised here after the 1989 revolutions would be turned to mockery.

I hope that Mr Meciar is the kind of politicians that Mr Kavan seems to think he is. But I do not believe that he is or can be; and there is, or ought to be, a wide chasm separating hope from belief.

I will hold off crying of Slovakia - but only because Mr Meciar is not yet certain to be the next Slovak Prime Minister.